From the beginning of 2023 until now, the world economy is still facing many uncertainties stemming from high global inflation, central banks continue to pursue tightening monetary policies, many major economies have growth slowing down, and geopolitical factors such as the war between Russia and Ukraine are still very complicated, while the Israel-Hamas conflict is increasingly tense. In that situation, Vietnam's economy faces many challenges. GDP in 2023 increases by 5.05% compared to 2022, which is only higher than the growth rate of 2.87% and 2.56% in 2020 and 2021 in 2011-2023.
Realized social investment capital in 2023 at current prices will only increase by 6.2% over the same period last year (in 2022, it will increase by 11.2%). In the investment capital of the State sector, realized capital from the State budget in 2023 only reached 85.3% of the year plan. Realized capital from the non-state sector will only increase by 2.7%, compared to an increase of 8.9% in 2022. Realized foreign direct investment capital in 2023 will only increase by 5.4%, compared to the increase in 2022 of 13.9%. Meanwhile, spending motivation also tends to decline. Overall, in 2023, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue will only increase by 9.6% compared to the previous year (in 2022, it will increase by 20%); if excluding the price factor, it will increase by 7.1% (in 2022, it will increase by 15.8%). In addition, financial-related issues in Europe and the US, such as public debt and rising interest rates, are holding back the economy and reducing world aggregate demand, significantly impacting countries with growth strategies that rely on exports like Vietnam. For the whole year 2023, the total import and export turnover of goods is estimated to reach 683 billion USD, down 6.6% compared to the previous year, of which exports decreased by 4.4%; Imports decreased by 8.9%.
Also, in 2023, credit to the economy will increase by 13.5% (the previous year increased by 14.5%), while the credit growth target for 2023 is 14%. In the context of general difficulties, demand for investment, production business, and domestic consumption declined, leading to a corresponding decrease in credit demand. The economic recovery support package for the 2 years 2022-2023, although nearly 2 years have passed, the amount of disbursed money is very low, not providing timely support for the difficulties that businesses encounter.
The above data shows a sharp decline in the economy's aggregate demand because all three aggregate demand components, investment, export, and consumption, are weak. Aggregate demand plays an important role in determining the level of production and employment in the economy. Decreasing aggregate demand shows that the economy is at risk of recession, which affects the overall growth of the economy, causing consequences such as a decline in industrial production, increased unemployment, and reduced income and people's spending... Restoring aggregate demand is an important task for Vietnam, requiring the Government and relevant Ministries, Departments, and Sectors to urgently take appropriate and timely measures to strengthen the Growth motivation from aggregate demand.
Therefore, the topic of the conference, besides the general assessment of the economy, will focus on assessing the components of aggregate demand to restore aggregate demand and economic growth in the new context.
The National Economics University in collaboration with the Central Economic Committee, Economic Committee of the National Assembly co-organises the national conference “Vietnam's economic overview 2023 and prospects 2024: Promoting aggregate demand for economic growth in the new context”. This is the annual conference and is one of the most important events at our university.
The conference is going to comprehensively review of Vietnam's economy in 2023 and evaluate the current state of aggregate demand and components from the aggregate demand side, thereby proposing recommendations to promote aggregate demand toward sustainable economic growth in the new context.
With the above goal, the conference will focus on the following contents:
- Clarifying the international context and the world's impacts on Vietnam's economy in 2023;
- Assessing Vietnam's economic developments in 2023 through the main areas of the economy (real economic sector, foreign affairs sector, monetary and financial sector, budgetary financial sector); achievements and limitations, evaluate the causes of limitations;
- Assessing the current state of aggregate demand and components from the aggregate demand side (investment, consumption, export), achieved results, existing limitations, and causes.
- Evaluating the contribution of factors from aggregate demand to economic growth. Forecasting aggregate demand component scenarios to achieve economic growth goals.
- Analyzing opportunities and challenges in 2023; assessing Vietnam's economic prospects in 2024; From there, recommending policies to boost aggregate demand, thereby contributing to sustainable growth in the new context.
TIME AND VENUE
Time: Wednesday, 17 April 2024.
Venue: National Economics University, 207 Giai Phong, Hai Ba Trung, Hanoi.
We are honoured to invite you to take part in and share your opinion at the conference. Please confirm your participant before 15 April for best preparation for the conference. Should you have any questions, please contact Ms Ngo Thi Huyen Trang (Annie)– Officer, International Cooperation Department, National Economics University, mobile number: 0948862258 and email: trangnt@neu.edu.vn.