Professor Peter J.N. Sinclair stated that China's growth was extremely rapid in the early 1980s. With predictions for the next 50 years, according to the professor, it seems that the current projections are too optimistic with this economy and he warns some possible risks such as financial crisis, global warming and trade barriers.
In the future of India, according to the professor, the country is now under the edge of technology, India is less vulnerable to export degradation and less of a barrier to labor shortages. The prospect of India's future growth is better than that of China, but there are some special risks, such as tensions between religious groups and the possibility of a war with Pakistan.
The future of Japan is Professor Peter J.N. Sinclair estimates that an economy with aging populations and rapidly declining overall GDP may begin to decline in absolute terms from the early 2030s.
As for Vietnam, the professor said that the beginning of industrialization is a new advantage of Vietnam. The strong growth of the economy since the late 1990s is forecast to continue for several decades, until the 2040s, and then decline gradually until the 2060s. He assessed the main stability and relatively slow start of industrialization will be a good condition for Vietnam to adapt faster to the world than some other countries in the region. But he also warned that private and public sector borrowing would not be allowed to increase or remain high as it could affect sustainable development.
Together with the Asian economies, the professor anticipates immediate challenges including: rural-to-urban migration, natural disasters (droughts, fires, typhoons, floods), the ability to change the price factor …
Professor Peter is a professor of economics, macroeconomics, finance, petroleum economics, unemployment, Brexit ... and has written 15 books on economics. finance, monetary policy, articles published in prestigious magazines such as Applied Economics, Economic and Social Review, Manchester School, Oxford Economic Papers…
Vietnam will be the "bridge" for Russia to promote trade with ASEAN countries
Prof. Zuev Vladimir, research director at the Higher School of Economics, Russia's National Research University, has conducted research on promoting trade development after Russia's first FTA with Vietnam.
According to the professor, Russia's position is very cautious about trade liberalization, and Russia has also encountered four difficult issues in international trade links: (i) liberalization and Russia's 18 year to join the WTO; (ii) views on regional connectivity; (iii) trade relations between Europe and Asia; (iv) Russia's position in Free Trade Agreements (FTAs).
The signing of the FTA with Vietnam is an important change for Russia's international trade policy. This is an important step in trade liberalization, which is the first joint agreement with the EAEU and also the first agreement between Russia and a country outside the Soviet Union and the Asian region.
Russia-Vietnam FTA is great importance for Russia's economic development, such as (i) helping to identify Russia's free trade policies; (ii) impact on relations between Russia in the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEU); influencing Russia's FTA negotiations with other countries; (iv) demonstrates its ability to develop economic linkages with Asian countries; and (v) indicate potential FTAs to promote trade with Vietnam and possibly ASEAN countries through Vietnam.
In 2015, Russia signed an FTA with Vietnam after four years of negotiations and the FTA officially came into effect on 5 November 2016. Under this agreement, after the transition, tariffs will be significantly reduced. Vietnam, a strategic partner for Russia in the Asia-Pacific region, accounts for 30% of the volume of trade. High level of protection of tariffs on domestic markets from both sides (for Vietnam: average tax rate is 11.5%, for countries in EAEU is 9.7%).
Trade revenue between Russia and Vietnam will increase by 62% in 2016 and 2017 compared to 2015. Exports from other countries in the EAEU will increase by 70% in 2016. Exports from Vietnam will increase by 19% in 2016. and a 35% increase in 2017. The professor believes that Vietnamese producers can grasp free trade advantages and efforts to increase exports of light industrial goods and manufactured products, export machinery into this country.
Vietnam needs to use more efficient water resources through rational pricing
While recognizing the economy in a very different aspect from the research of other experts, Dr. Chu Hoang Long, Senior Lecturer, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University research water resources in Vietnam.
Dr. Long said Vietnam is among the countries most affected by climate change and has recently faced frequent droughts, with increasing severity.
For example, according to a FAO report, the drought in 2016 has devastated nearly half a million hectares of crops, affecting more than 50 provinces / cities across the country, including 18 in the state of emergency, and about 2 million people are suffering from water shortages, which require support. These are the risks that threaten the economic and social development of a country that is in the tropical rain zone, with little experience in dealing with water scarcity, particularly in the context of agriculture. The key to ensure national food security is most dependent on water resources.
According to Dr. Chu Hoang Long, policy makers need to evaluate and take measures to improve water use. His research shows that the average value added of water resources is about 12,280 VND / m3 (price in 2016); 16% of surveyed households use water inefficiently, in other words, they can reduce the amount of water without affecting the production results. Research shows that statistics show that social organizations, education levels, and especially the ability to use the Internet to exchange information, play an important role in explaining the difference on the level of efficiency in water usage among household groups.
The study also provides evidence that water pricing is an effective policy direction for improving water use efficiency in agriculture, which accounts for about 90% of total water use. When water pricing is used, farmer households will be more responsible using water and will eliminate unprofitable uses of water to cover the cost. Specifically, the price of water at 2000-3000 VND / m3 (in addition to the cost of pumping, suctioning, maintenance of canals, ditches, lakes, dams ...) can reduce to over 80% of water use, while profits of farmers decreased only 15%. It is important, of course, that government revenue should be used to support water-saving production technologies and help poor farmers to overcome temporary difficulties.
In addition to academic and theoretical calculations, the study provides a number of policy recommendations based on country experiences and actual conditions in Vietnam. Specifically, water pricing should be tested first in high income areas and is being affected by water scarcity as some of Lam Dong's export producing regions. The role of social organizations, education and the Internet in raising and sharing knowledge among farmers should be emphasized. In the process of implementation, it is important to listen to and weigh opinions from many stakeholders, especially from farmer households, to ensure multi-dimensional information. Water meter installation requires initial investment and can be supported through the involvement of the private sector.